And now, a word from the Captain...

The letter published in the Erie Times-News today submitted by Captain Dennis M. Kudlak of Continental Airlines is a devastating indictment of both the management of Erie’s so-called “international airport,” and management proposals to spend $80 million on the runway extension there in the futile expectation that it would generate enough large aircraft traffic to justify it. These are false expectations which have been swallowed by local politicians and Times-News editorialists hook, line and sinker.

The letter is especially pertinent coming from an airline expert and professional who pilots passenger aircraft to dozens of airports throughout the country, unlike the airport manager and authority, who, as Kudlak notes, have no hands-on field experience. It places a huge question mark over the hasty and rash $26 million dollar deal reached among the city, county and Millcreek of which the runway expansion is a major component.

Especially damning is Kudlak’s comment that airport manager “Fredericks misleads the community by trying to make us believe that Erie, with a rural airport currently served by regional aircraft (30 to 40 passengers), has a real chance of attracting more numbers of passengers than in previous years. But most of this traffic is at larger airports, by virtue of the current and potential levels of air service available.”

Captain Kudlak’s sentiments more or less echo those I wrote in my post here on Nov. 10, to wit: “A viral mob hysteria has overtaken Erie county council and executive Mark DiVecchio, egged on by the development-at-any cost crowd and its mouthpiece, the Times Publishing Co., as they prepare to spend nearly half the $26 million on runway expansion at the Erie airport to expand services already underutilized by Erie’s anemic air passenger market, which should be directed towards more traditional and critical county needs.”

In response to a comment on that post, I replied, in part, that the estimated $80 milion cost of the extension will be a lot more than that if and when the project is completed. There will inevitably be huge cost overruns the county will have to help defray in order to protect its original investment. But in the end, it will likely tank anyway, or require substantial public subsidies to pay off its amortized and operational life cycle costs, or both.

The unsupported assumption behind the proposed runway extension is that a longer runway would create more direct flights in and out of Erie. That’s the same unwarranted assumption and rationale on which Pittsburgh’s “world class” airport was built a decade or so ago.

But look at it now. Dozens of gates designed for big jumbo jets are now closed or servicing small commuter aircraft, with many more to close soon. Since 1997, air passenger traffic at Pittsburgh International has dropped from 21 million to ten million per year. It’s a fiscal disaster area on the way to becoming a ghost town, still in an uncontrolled descent.

It’s the same befuddled mentality which produced the new bayfront convention center destined to become the county’s next white elephant. The runway project is the convention center writ small. Though spectacular, the convention center is a house built of cards – pyramiding assumptions on top of pyramiding assumptions. It too was launched without benefit of credible market surveys and studies, justified by mock projections fabricated by "consultants" with a vested interest in the outcome, and riding on a hope and a prayer.